March 03, 2008
The Future of Newspapers
The Future of Newspapers, Scenario Planning
-Understanding the options to be considered when implementing change
Lawrence Wilkinson, Chairman of Heminge & Condell
Scenario Planning: a way of thinking about the future
Look back into the past…
Map of North America where California looks like an island.
- Spanish missionaries used this map as a tool
Journalists make connections that aren’t actually founded in evidence and experience all the time. “We wouldn’t be sitting where we are,” said Wilkinson, “if these connections - little leaps - weren’t right.”
Once you have a map and it’s coherent, even if it’s wrong and leads you in the wrong direction, the human capacity - the institutional capacity—that we’ve got “to deny error” is extraordinary.
If journalists have a map and it’s wrong, we are liable to make some mistakes that would be much better not to make.
Business plans start going wrong the second they are executed. The second we pull the trigger what happens is the “real unfolding of real forces in real time.” Instead of fulfilling our intended strategy, organizations find themselves following the emergent strategy.
Scenario planning: is a way of trying to narrow the gap between intended strategy and emergent strategy
Three elements of strategy:
1. Who we are: competences - strengthens and weaknesses
2. Who we want to be: strategic intent
3. Where we have to work scenarios: the business environment
**Scenario Planning is entirely about the environment.
Scenario Planning is all about the business environment. It starts with a contemplation of all the hard environmental factors that can have an important impact on the questions your organization is facing.
Environmental forces (little or no influence): social, technological, economic, environmental, political
Key feature (some influences): market size, growth, volatility, customers, competition, suppliers, owners, communities and partners
Forecasting aims to allow for the unexpected
Scenario thinking: anticipates multiple futures
Forecast Planning: planning for one future versus scenario planning: planning for any future
Scenarios are:
-Stories built around a methodically constructed plot
-A tool for identifying strategic options
A good set of scenarios are:
-Plausible stories
-Relevant to the question at hand
-Divergent from one another
-Challenging to our assumptions about how the future will play out
Questions:
-Investments in capacity
-Investments in innovation, technology
-Alliances, acquisitions, mergers
-Diversification into other activities
-Marketing focus
All Media are Local: We might see…
-Local - and hyper-local—alternatives rule
-Consumers use tools to create customized services
-Erosion of traditional network TV audiences; local TV, not so much…
A3: We might see:
-Standardization of technology platforms: ease of use and widespread adoption
-Media brands are difficult to maintain—a multitude of unfiltered choices face every consumer
-Consumers self-segregate according to affinity
-Geographic sensibilities more important than actual geographic location (e.g. The New Yorker way of life, Asian Values)
Walled Garden: We might see…
-Media industry consolidation
-Widespread technology and media fatigue
-Preference for narrow brands of information and entertainment
-“Walled-Garden”: big brands dominate the media with tight IP and right management
-Local needs “satisfied”
Déjà vu Again: We might see…
-Technological innovation slowed by operating issues and access to capital
-Local defining, but extreme consolidation - fewer local media owners - more conglomerates
-Local news more tabloid style (in multimedia)
-Trust in sources important - but hard to achieve
Implications:
No-Brainers
No-Regrets
No-Gainers
By Danielle Coviello, 03/03/08 at 5:58 pm
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